Year average oil demand % change Oil price Oil price Max oil price Minimum price
   World     -     All liquids on yr before Year min Year max PPP adjusted PPP adjusted Deflator* Deflator/ California Energy Commission   Delphi IX Survey of Oil Price Forecasts  1997
current dollars current dollars 2003 dollars 2003 dollars 1996 = 100    1996-2003 Forecast average 3 - 3.4%/year inflation per year
1971 50,785 4.45
1972 52,540 3.45 $1.84/bbl $3.70/bbl $15.50/bbl $7.75/bbl 29.36
1973 58,505 11.35 $2.35/bbl $3.75/bbl $14.80/bbl $9.30/bbl 31.21 PPP adjustment 2003/1973 = x 3.95
1974 58,610 0.18 $11.60/bbl $15.50/bbl $56.15/bbl $42.05/bbl 33.94
1975 55,690 -4.98 $11.95/bbl $12.80/bbl $42.60/bbl $39.75/bbl 37.2
1976 60,075 7.87 $11.85/bbl $12.15/bbl $38.05/bbl $37.10/bbl 39.53
1977 63,000 4.87 $11.50/bbl $12.90/bbl $37.75/bbl $33.65/bbl 42.23
1978 63,125 0.19 $12.20/bbl $14.25/bbl $38.75/bbl $33.15/bbl 45.56
1979 65,975 4.51 $21.50/bbl $41.50/bbl $103.50/bbl $53.60/bbl 49.54
1980 63,135 -4.22 $28.50/bbl $34.95/bbl $79.65/bbl $64.95/bbl 54.2
1981 59,745 -5.37 $31.10/bbl $41.25/bbl $84.95/bbl $64.10/bbl 59.6 PPP adjusment 2003/1981 = x 2.06
1982 58,005 -2.92 $28.50/bbl $34.75/bbl $67.80/bbl $55.60/bbl 63.31
1983 58,040 0.06 $27.45/bbl $31.50/bbl $59.05/bbl $51.45/bbl 65.88
1984 58,650 1.05 $28.60/bbl $36.50/bbl $65.25/bbl $51.15/bbl 68.82
1985 58,150 -0.86 $26.15/bbl $30.05/bbl $52.05/bbl $45.30/bbl 71.32
1986 60,655 4.31 $11.40/bbl $19.35/bbl $32.65/bbl $19.25/bbl 73.25
1987 61,305 1.07 $12.50/bbl $17.75/bbl $29.00/bbl $20.35/bbl 75.58
1988 63,690 3.89 $10.45/bbl $14.30/bbl $22.50/bbl $16.45/bbl 78.49
1989 65,875 3.43 $14.65/bbl $21.20/bbl $31.90/bbl $22.05/bbl 82.03
1990 66,745 1.31 $14.40/bbl $27.30/bbl $39.40/bbl $20.75/bbl 85.59 Oil prices exclude 'Gulf War-1' peak
1991 66,615 -0.19 $15.65/bbl $25.05/bbl $34.55/bbl $21.60/bbl 88.89 PPP adjustment 2003/1991 = x 1.38 Oil prices exclude 'Gulf War-1' peak
1992 66,950 0.51 $15.90/bbl $21.90/bbl $29.60/bbl $21.50/bbl 91.38
1993 66,700 -0.04 $12.95/bbl $20.25/bbl $26.65/bbl $17.05/bbl 93.37
1994 68,100 2.09 $13.05/bbl $19.05/bbl $24.65/bbl $16.90/bbl 95.34
1995 69,215 1.64 $15.45/bbl $19.90/bbl $25.20/bbl $19.55/bbl 97.6
1996 70,705 2.15 $17.05/bbl $23.95/bbl $29.55/bbl $21.05/bbl 100
1997 72,550 2.61 $17.15/bbl $23.50/bbl $28.15/bbl $20.55/bbl 103.2
1998 72,920 0.51 $9.70/bbl $16.60/bbl $18.75/bbl $10.95/bbl 107.9
1999 75,005 2.86 $24.90/bbl $26.05/bbl $28.95/bbl $27.70/bbl 111
2000 76,905 2.53 $22.95/bbl $34.25/bbl $36.40/bbl $24.40/bbl 114.3
2001 75,990 -1.19 $17.60/bbl $29.55/bbl $31.05/bbl $18.50/bbl 117.6
2002 76,005 0.02 $15.75/bbl $29.70/bbl $30.70/bbl $16.25/bbl 120 PPP adjustment 2003/2002 = x 1.029
2003 77,100 1.44 estimate 1 $45 $45 $25 123.5
2003 77,900 2.49 estimate 2 $55 $55 $25 123.5
PEAK PRICE PEAK PRICE
CURRENT 2003
DOLLARS DOLLARS
OIL PRICES/ 'Oil economists handbook' Vols 1 & 2, G Jenkins, Elsevier Applied Science, various editions    /OPEC Bulletin
                / Platts Oilgram Price Report Prices are for selected volume crudes including Saudi light, Nigerian, Norwegian, US WTI, Kuwaiti and other crudes
YEAR AVERAGE OIL PRODUCTION/ BP Amoco statistical review  /US EIA   /World Energy Statistics and Balances, OECD-IEA, various editions
1972-73 data is surely in error (11.3% apparent increase, one year)
Andrew McKillop    V4     6/6/03
andrewmckillop@compuserve.com